Mortgage Market Commentary September 18th 2015

Mortgage Market Commentary September 18th 2015


Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which pushed rates slightly lower. Rates were worse the beginning of the week ahead of the Fed results Thursday. Retail sales rose 0.2% versus the expected 0.3% increase. Industrial production fell 0.4% versus the expected 0.2% decrease. Capacity use was 77.6 versus the expected 77.8. These figures were rate friendly but we got no traction from them as selling pressure continued tied to stock gains. The NAHB Housing Market Index was @ 62 versus the expected 61. Rates improved Thursday afternoon in response to the Fed (see note below.) Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by about .125%.

Fed Reinvests in Mortgage Bonds

The Fed stated, “The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.” This is great news for lower rates in the short term. However, the Fed also noted that most members look for a rate hike by the end of the year. Now is a great time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at these favorable levels.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Existing Home Sales

Monday, Sept. 21,
10:00 am, et

5.61M

Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.

FHFA House Price Index

Tuesday, Sept. 22,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.6%

Moderately Important. A measure of single family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

2-year Treasury Note Auction

Tuesday, Sept. 22,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

5-year Treasury Note Auction

Wednesday, Sept. 23,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Sept. 24,
8:30 am, et

265K

Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.

Durable Goods Orders

Thursday, Sept. 24,
8:30 am, et

Up 1.8%

Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

New Home Sales

Thursday, Sept. 24,
10:00 am, et

515K

Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

7-year Treasury Note Auction

Thursday, Sept. 24,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q2 GDP Estimate

Friday, Sept. 25,
8:30 am, et

Up 2.6%

Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Friday, Sept. 25,
10:00 am, et

85.9

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Please give us a call if you have any financial questions or if you need a second opinion on a loan scenario. If you are calling after hours or on weekends, please call us at our team number 702-216-3975. 



Dustin DeHart
Vice President/Senior Loan Officer
Office: 702.216.3902
Cell: 702.217.3009
Fax: 702.430.1501
www.homeloansforvegas.com
NMLS: 25011

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Dated: September 18th 2015
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