Market Commentary Report July 24th

Market Commentary Report July 24th



Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which put downward pressure on rates. Rates were negative the beginning of the week tied to the 7 billion euro Greek bridge loan. Rates recovered the remainder of the week tied to stock weakness. The FHFA Housing Price Index rose 0.4% versus the expected 0.3% increase. Existing home sales were also higher than expected. Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.6% versus the expected 0.2% increase. Weekly jobless claims were 255K versus the expected 278K. Continuing claims were 2207K versus the expected 2212K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by about 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point.


Higher Rates


Mortgage rates have generally risen from their recent lows but remain very favorable. The march to higher rates came amid continued warnings from Fed officials of possible Fed rate hikes starting in September. Many signs show the US economy is heading in the right direction. Unemployment is low and housing prices have risen. A basic economic concept is rates will rise when the economy is doing well. However, these are unusual times for sure. The future is murky at best and where rates are going is unknown. We do know rates have risen recently and are likely to be volatile into the future. Now is a great time to take advantage of rates near historic lows and reduce the uncertainty of a future purchase or refinance


LOOKING AHEAD


Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Durable Goods Orders

Monday, July 27,
8:30 am, et

Down 0.5%

Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, July 28,
10:00 am, et

99.8

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

2-year Treasury Note Auction

Tuesday, July 28,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

5-year Treasury Note Auction

Wednesday, July 29,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Fed Meeting Adjourns

Wednesday, July 29,
2:15 pm, et

No rate changes

Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, July 30,
8:30 am, et

262K

Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.

Q2 Advance GDP

Thursday, July 30,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.6%

Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

7-year Treasury Note Auction

Thursday, July 30,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q2 Employment Cost Index

Friday, July 31,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.6%

Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Friday, July 31,
10:00 am, et

93.7

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.


Please give us a call if you have any financial questions or if you need a second opinion on a loan scenario. If you are calling after hours or on weekends, please use 702-216-3975 this is our team number.



Dustin DeHart
Vice President/Senior Loan Officer
Office: 702.216.3902
Cell: 702.217.3009
Fax: 702.430.1501
www.homeloansforvegas.com
NMLS: 25011

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